Like many parts of the world, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has more than a passing interest in the current state and future trajectory of British politics. For year ending March 2023, trade between the United Kingdom and GCC countries amounted to £65.2 billion, making the Gulf region the UK’s seventh-largest export market. A UK government report also highlights that GCC Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) holdings in the country amounted to £15.7 billion in 2020. Close economic ties are complemented by positive diplomatic relations and a large expat British workforce in many GCC states.

It's also not lost on the GCC that the UK has experienced unprecedented levels of political upheaval over the past 8 years, including exiting the European Union, a significant cost-of-living crisis, and concerns over illegal migration. Closer to the Gulf, the UK has joined the United States and other allies in deploying naval assets to counter attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on maritime vessels transiting the Red Sea region in response to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza. Steering the country through these difficult times has been a Conservative government that has gone through 5 prime ministers in almost a decade, and which is tearing itself apart over a range of ideological issues.

But change might be on the horizon. At the beginning of May, England held its latest round of local government, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections (Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales have different electoral cycles aligned to their parliamentary systems). The results are routinely poured over for clues regarding the possible outcome of the next general election, which is expected to take place later this year.

There can be no denying that the latest round of English elections was grim for the Conservatives. Seats and political posts were lost in parts of the country that traditionally identifies with its ideology or voted in the party at the last general election to “get Brexit done.” To compound matters, the Conservatives are hemorrhaging support to the right-wing populist Reform UK. The party has also witnessed defections by Members of Parliament to the opposition, including one immediately after the elections.

The main victor from the last round of English elections was the Labour Party, which is widely expected to win the upcoming general election. Besides retaining the London mayoralty, the party also regained ground in constituencies lost in the buildup to Brexit. Labour’s successes reflect that the party has maintained a steady lead in opinion polls over the past two years, won parliamentary by-elections in parts of the country that has never previously voted for it, and been the main beneficiary of defections. But it was not all good news for Labour, which also witnessed a decline in Muslim support over its stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

If opinion polling remains consistent, then the UK’s next Prime Minister will be Labour’s Keir Starmer. Polls nevertheless suggest that while Labour currently enjoys a double-digit lead its party leader is not universally popular with the electorate, something which the Conservatives may exploit during the general election campaign. The Conservative’s ability to run negative but effective communications against Starmer could be the difference between his party winning an outright majority or governing in coalition with an assortment of smaller parties.

Whatever the outcome, the GCC should not expect a radically different approach to regional policy by a Labour-led government. Labour has publicly stated that it has no plans to reverse the result of the 2016 referendum on the European Union. This means that the party will likely continue negotiations with the GCC for a post-Brexit free trade agreement. That said, GCC companies with significant investments in the UK may want to pay close attention to Labour’s proposed review of business taxes. The party has signalled that it wants a tax system that incentivises businesses to direct profits into investment, rather than a short-term focus on share buy-backs and dividends.

In terms of foreign policy, a Labour government will maintain close diplomatic ties with Israel and calls for a two-state solution to the Gaza crisis, despite internal differences over the current conflict that have resulted in some MPs resigning shadow government positions and local politicians leaving the party. It is also worth noting that the Labour supported the UK’s and United States’ recent airstrikes on Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping around the Red Sea. A Labour government resuming airstrikes in response to further disruption of this sea line of communication should not be ruled out.

A new government is unlikely to result in a major overhaul of the GCC’s diplomatic relations with the UK. Dialogue between both parties will remain cordial and free from disruption, despite the potential for divergence over Gaza, the security situation around the Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine, to name but a few. Even then, such differences are unlikely to adversely impact economic relations, disincentivize further FDI, or prompt divestment in both regions, meaning that the GCC’s private sector will maintain ‘business as usual’ with its commercial contacts.